is tiktok entering its flop era?
at least fearmongering makes for good engagement bait
I’ll get straight to the point here: I don't think the TikTok ban is actually going to happen. The idea of the American government taking such an aggressive anti-capitalist stance against one of the most popular social media platforms feels unlikely – even if TikTok's Chinese ownership continues to stoke anti-China sentiment among tech and government. The prospect of banning a platform used by 170 million Americans seems politically unfeasible, regardless of national security concerns.
pov: you’re trying to ban america’s favorite app
President Biden's decision mandates that TikTok must be sold to an American company by January 19th, 2025. It doesn't explicitly ban TikTok outright, although widespread fearmongering and misinformation would have you believe otherwise. Biden's a lame duck and all eyes are on President-elect Trump, who's uniquely positioned with no reelection pressures. With his tech connections – ByteDance investor Jeff Yass was a major donor, plus relationships with Elon Musk and Peter Thiel – Trump will likely broker a sale before the deadline.
Several potential buyers are positioning themselves. Kevin O'Leary (yes, the Shark Tank guy), and former Dodgers' CEO Frank McCourt have both expressed interest in the past, but with a significant caveat: they can't buy TikTok's secret sauce. The Chinese government is unwilling to sell TikTok’s algorithms.
However, TikTok's recommendation systems, combined with their insane shipping speed, make the product extremely effective for creators and audiences. If an American company tries to rebuild the algorithm, we'll likely get a worse version of what we currently have. I'm wary after X's takeover - my user experience is horrible, and I’m not alone. My newsfeed used to be bad VC takes and good memes; now I wade through far-right content and Elon's cringey retweets.
An American acquisition also threatens engineering quality and speed. TikTok's controversial 996 culture contributes significantly to what makes the product effective - and these working hours are a rarity in American tech companies. As a TikTok creator, I'm consistently impressed by their new product releases and ability to solve user needs.
The uncanny recommendation system and rapid development pace make TikTok uniquely effective for creators and audiences. Distribution and discovery feels effortless compared to gaining impressions on Instagram or YouTube. This positions TikTok as a crucial audience-building launchpad for creators, who then cross-pollinate to other platforms.
posting through the crisis
Many creators aren't waiting for changes. A recent TikTok trend has been creators posting their handles across other social media platforms and urging their followers to find them there. Some do lean into the hysteria, and many see this time as a good opportunity to plug their presence on other platforms.
Food and fashion creators often cross-post to Substack and Instagram. Substack offers the most direct monetization through its subscription model. YouTube channels are getting more attention for longer-form content. Even BlueSky is seeing an influx of creators, though it remains heavily skewed toward journalists and tech folks.
This coincides with an inflection point in the TikTok user experience. We're hitting saturation with the types of content produced on TikTok. “Deinfluencing” videos have become increasingly popular – a direct pushback against much of the content on the platform promoting consumption (think luxe apartment tours and shopping hauls). At the same time, more TikTok users are thirsty for smaller creators who feel more “authentic", aka “microinfluencers”. This shift toward micro-influencers signals a return to social media's original promise: authentic connection over polished production. Deep down, many of us miss how we felt in the early days of YouTube, armed with our parents’ cameras and trying to vlog our days.
where do we go next?
The ByteDance-TikTok code separation presents a massive technical hurdle. How do you separate deeply integrated systems while maintaining functionality? This is part of a broader trend in tech regulation, as seen with the DOJ pushing Google to sell Chrome.
If TikTok's experience, after an American acquisition, degrades for creators and audiences, where will they go? YouTube seems like the next best destination, but both content discovery and production there require a lot more effort. Think 20-min thinkpieces shot on a real camera (Mina Le’s video essays are an incredible example) vs. a hasty 6-second clip from on a phone. Joanne Molinaro, known online as The Korean Vegan, demonstrates successful cross-platform adaptation – her mouthwatering food shots and poignant storytelling resonate equally with me on YouTube and TikTok, showing how creators can evolve beyond platform constraints
Substack could be another place to land. The Substack feed, notes, and restack features remind me of Tumblr in its heyday.
Some of my favorite TikTok creators have been posting on Substack, and I enjoy reading their content because it feels more thoughtful and intimate vs. watching another TikTok clip. In this image, left-to-right, top-to-bottom:
, , , , and — all great follows.Regardless, this pressure might push creators to think outside the box, create longer-form content, and diversify their platforms. I’m excited to see what we’ll create – I, frankly, am tired of OOTD videos.
Big thanks to & Nish (no Substack yet, though he should really publish his takes..) for editing this piece.
Megha!! Thank you for the shout out. I definitely agree with a lot of what you said here. This situation has really reinforced the importance of audience cultivation in favor of growth within any single platform. An email list is probably the only independent way to maintain connection outside of the apps which is the appeal of substack and why I think many creators will find it to be an attractive choice [in the scenario that TikTok does fall]. Video is a dominant medium for content creation which will keep YouTube and Instagram at the forefront, but the Shorts and Reels algorithms just don't have the juice in my opinion. Would actually love to see an increase in social capital for both long form content and IRL activations and social groups.
Such a great piece!